A tractor unit without a driver costs money every day, regardless of the workload. Anyone who posts a driver position today quickly realizes that the problem isn’t due to the ad.
There is a lot of writing about the driver shortage, mostly with a large number in the headline. These numbers seem to contradict each other. Here they are with their origin and method, plus the calculation behind it and the levers that the freight forwarders have at their disposal.
Driver shortage in Germany, as of 2026
Both because they measure different things and come from different years. Three sources shape the debate, and they work differently.
| Source | Method | Number and status |
|---|---|---|
| BGL, Federal Association of Road Transport, Logistics and Waste Management | Association estimate based on industry knowledge and member data | „120,000 plus X“ in January 2026, „100,000 plus X“ a year earlier. Without the cyclical weakness, the value would have exceeded 140,000, according to the association. |
| Consortium study „Meeting capacity shortages in logistics with a focus on driving personnel“ | Model calculation based on official statistics, prepared by Logistics Advisory Experts, the TU Dresden and the Technical University of Würzburg-Schweinfurt with 16 companies and five associations | around 53,000 for 2022 and over 70,000 for 2023, with an expected increase of around 20,000 per year. Published in January 2023 |
| Federal Employment Agency | Key indicators such as vacancy rates, the ratio of job seekers to available jobs and wage development | No nationwide shortage. The bottleneck analysis classifies professions, rather than enumerating the missing personnel. |
The study itself expected an increase of around 20,000 drivers per year. At the current rate of expansion, the number would be in the region of 120,000 by 2026. However, this is a projection from 2023 and not a new measurement, and it does not independently confirm the association’s estimate of the BGL. The weaker statement is more acceptable: Both approaches describe a gap in the six-digit range that is growing further.
For your own planning, the federal figure remains of limited value. Whether you fill a position depends on the area within a radius of fifty kilometers.
A hint about the economy: The gap has grown more slowly recently because less transport has been carried out. If demand picks up again, this effect will work in the opposite direction.
Behind the gap lies an age structure that has been evident for years.
According to the Federal Statistical Office, in 2023, just over four out of ten female professional drivers in freight transport were at least 55 years old, or 39 percent to be more precise. This proportion was 25 percent across all professions. For bus and tram drivers, it is 44 percent.
The BGL compares this to the number of entries and exits: Every year, around 30,000 to 35,000 truck drivers retire, while approximately 15,000 to 20,000 new drivers join the workforce. The association derives this from a structural deficit of around 15,000 female drivers per year.
This size is not dependent on the demand situation or the price of diesel. It will remain the same until significantly more people start working in the profession.
On August 18, 2026, several regulations came into effect that make it easier for international drivers to access the profession.
For companies that recruit internationally, especially the foreign language exam reduces a hurdle that had previously been a bottleneck in many processes. What this means in concrete terms for the process is explained on the page. Truck drivers from abroad are being recruited.
Federal figures help with categorization. The calculation can be set up in half an hour for planning purposes.
The benefit of this calculation lies in the timing: it moves the decision on training or international recruitment forward, where there is still room for maneuver.
A single measure alone does not solve the problem. A combination is effective.
The most cost-effective driver is the one who stays. Predictable routes, reliable return times, functioning vehicles, and an accessible schedule are regularly among the points drivers hold a company to in surveys. They are unpromising and therefore rarely implemented consistently.
Here it is worth distinguishing between two paths. The three-year training for professional drivers provides comprehensive education and only after three years does a driver become fully qualified. For newcomers, however, the path through a driver's license and accelerated basic qualification with 140 hours of instruction leads to the goal, and that in a significantly shorter time. Both are forms of qualification; however, the time horizon differs significantly.
Those who finance a driver's license and basic qualifications are likely to attract newcomers who would not otherwise be eligible. This investment can be secured through a repayment agreement that is linked to a minimum employment period. Such clauses are permissible, but only within strict limits: The duration of the commitment must match the duration of the measure, and the agreement must specify the reason for termination of the employment relationship. A submission from the internet rarely stands up to this scrutiny.
Women, newcomers from other industries, returnees. These groups need entry-level models that fit into their lives, and therefore tours that don’t generally last five nights.
EU, EEA and Swiss nationals enjoy freedom of movement: no visa required, no approval from the Federal Employment Agency. However, a driver's license of the appropriate class and a valid driver qualification certificate are still required, and the competition for the same drivers is across Europe.
From third countries, the route is more complex and has the largest remaining volume. Three routes are possible, depending on whether the driver brings the required driver's license and professional driver qualification with them or obtains them in Germany. For the acquisition in Germany, § 24a Abs. 2 of the BeschV requires that the driver already possesses a driver's license from their country of origin. For the qualification, the provision provides for a framework of up to 15 months, extendable by up to six additional months in justified individual cases. This framework is a legal maximum duration and not a typical project duration: how long it actually takes depends on driving school appointments, exams, and language proficiency. All details can be found here: Truck drivers from abroad are being recruited.
One point from this should be noted here because in practice it is regularly underestimated. According to the Federal Ministry of the Interior’s instructions regarding the Fachkräfteeinwanderungsgesetz (Federal Skilled Immigration Act), the responsibility for verifying the driver’s license and professional driving requirements lies with the employer. Therefore, a consent granted by the Federal Employment Agency does not mean that the driver is allowed to drive a truck in Germany. These are separate legal spheres, and the responsibility for actual deployment lies with the company.
Automation relieves pressure in certain areas and will not replace drivers in distribution or long-distance transport in the foreseeable future.
Higher compensation can improve one's own competitiveness and employee retention. However, the available driver supply does not increase it in the short term.
A three-year training program works, but only after years have passed; it runs against the annual attrition rates, which are many times higher than the training numbers. The accelerated basic qualification for newcomers is more effective, but it requires that candidates are even found in the first place.
The BGL estimated the gap in January 2026 at „120,000 plus X“. For 2023, the consortium study on driving personnel came to over 70,000 and predicted an increase of around 20,000 annually. Both figures describe a six-digit gap, but are based on different methods and reporting years and cannot be directly compared with each other. The Federal Employment Agency does not publish a nationwide shortage figure, but lists professional drivers as a bottleneck occupation.
Because they are produced differently. In the BGL, it is a federation estimate, while the study number is a model calculation based on official statistics, and the Federal Agency measures shortages through indicators such as vacancy time and the ratio of job seekers to available jobs. In addition, there are different reporting periods.
Especially due to the age structure. In 2023, 39 percent of professional drivers in freight transport were at least 55 years old, compared to 25 percent for all professions. According to BGL, around 30,000 to 35,000 drivers retire annually, while 15,000 to 20,000 follow suit. In addition, there are the entry costs and working conditions that compete with other industries.
After that, it doesn't look like that. Lately, the gap has been growing more slowly because less has been transported. If demand picks up again, this effect will work in the opposite direction, and the depreciation wave will continue regardless.
Yes, for medium-term planning, because it allows newcomers to enter the market. In the short term, this does not result in increased driving time. The investment can be contractually secured, but only within the strict limits set by the courts for reimbursement clauses.
It depends on what the driver brings with them. Those who already have the required EU or EEA driver’s license and a professional driver qualification acquired there can be employed after obtaining a visa and entry. A driver’s license and a qualification from the country of origin usually are not sufficient for this purpose. Those who acquire both in Germany need a driver’s license from the country of origin as a basis. § 24a, paragraph 2 of the BeschV provides for a framework of up to 15 months for qualification, extendable by up to six months in justified individual cases. This deadline is a legal maximum duration, not an indicator of experience for the project duration.
From the Western Balkan countries, from Ukraine and from the countries of the Caucasus and Central Asian region. Which country is suitable in a particular case depends on whether the driver's license can be converted there, how long the foreign representation takes for visa appointments and whether there is a reliable partner structure in place locally.
Tell us how many drivers you need, for which tours and from when. In the first conversation, we will discuss which route suits your business, what it means in terms of timing, and what you need to prepare for. The conversation is free of charge and does not require any commitment.
Discussing driver requirements
Further information: Truck drivers from abroad are being recruited · Section 24a of the BeschV in detail · West Balkan regulation for professional drivers · Recruiting skilled workers from abroad
Status: October 2026. The estimated numbers regarding the driver shortage come from industry associations and from studies and differ depending on the method and the reporting year. This text provides an overview and does not replace advice in individual cases.